August 2026 · live

Trend intact, fully invested.

You are fully in stocks this month. The rest waits in cash rather than bonds: hot inflation can sink both at once. A place to stand, not a guess about what comes next.

The Climate ReadingAugust 2026
Trend intact, fully invested.You are fully in stocks this month. The rest waits in cash rather than bonds: hot inflation can sink both at once. A place to stand, not a guess about what comes next.
Valuation · Excess Owner's YieldExtreme
CheapFairExpensiveExtreme
Trend · 89-day EMAIntact
BrokenIntact
VolatilityCalm
ComplacentCalmChoppyStorm
InflationHot
CoolHot
The posture
99%Growth · SPY0%Anchor · IEF1%Dry Powder · BIL

The discipline's current posture: trend sets whether you hold stocks, volatility sets how much, and the reserve sits in the Anchor or in cash by the real-rate and inflation reading.

The dials
Trend · the gate
Intact
7711.76 vs 89-day EMA 7452.79 (+3.47%)
Volatility · the sizer
Calm
realized 13.34% vs 13.21% target · stocks 99%
Real rate · anchor carry
High
2.34% real 10y · 94 of 100
Inflation · the veto
Hot
CPI 3.54% vs 2.87% median
Valuation · awareness
Extreme
Excess Owner's Yield -0.50% · 100 of 100
The readings
Owner's Yield (normalized, full-history margin)1.84%
Excess Owner's Yield (vs real Treasury)-0.50%
Excess Owner's Yield (vs real Baa)-2.12%
Credit dial (real Baa minus real Treasury)readout1.62%
Real 10-year Treasury (DFII10)2.34%
Real Baa corporate3.96%
Normal profit margin (full-history)9.1%
Realized volatility (63-day, annualized)13.34%
Volatility target (expanding median)13.21%
Stock scale (target / realized)99%
CPI year-over-year3.54%
CPI YoY median (expanding)2.87%
How this is read

The reading drives a three-fund discipline: SPY for growth, IEF for the bond Anchor, BIL for dry powder. Two signals set how much you hold in stocks. Trend is the S&P 500 against its 89-day moving average, confirmed by two closes. It decides whether you hold stocks at all. Volatility is the S&P's 63-day realized volatility against its own history. It decides how much, trimming your stocks when the tape turns wild. Whatever is not in stocks becomes the reserve: it sits in intermediate Treasuries when real yields are high and inflation is contained. Otherwise it waits in cash. Inflation is a one-way veto, not a forecast: it can only keep you out of bonds, never push you in, the rule that avoided the 2022 trap. Valuation measures how expensive the market is against its own history. Expensive markets tend to fall further when they turn, so it is worth knowing, but it moves none of your money. The signals are read daily. The discipline rebalances weekly.

Source data: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), public domain, computed by the Climate Compass engine. As of: fundamentals 2026-04-01, rates 2026-08-27, price 2026-08-28.

Permalink: 17years.org/climate/2026-08 is a stable link to this reading, safe to share and cite: 17 Years, “The Climate Reading, August 2026.”